By Tsebeni Ivan
As the clock ticks towards the fast-approaching 2026 polls, political parties are as well gearing up preparations towards a democratic affair. The drawing up, however comes on a slippery road as major opposition parties are engulfed in seemingly hard-to-repair divisions.
Politicians seem to care more about their next term in office than a common goal for the country. Sadly, parties which should act as political vehicles are deeply brewing in fights.
The feud between the National Unity Platform (NUP) and former Leader of Opposition in Parliament Mathias Mpuuga has festered since last year and all indications are that it will go on until the 2026 elections.
But as this feud turns Masaka into a 2026 ‘battleground state’ that is threatening to upset alliances and is pitting institutions like the Buganda monarchy and NUP, a Buganda-dominated party, against each other, what lies ahead for all contenders; including the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party?
A look at the polling data from the 2021 election shows why Masaka matters and why it has become front and centre in the election roadmap.
Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine notched 73% of the vote beating President Yoweri Museveni who got just 25%. Bobi Wine ate into Museveni’s vote margins because in 2016, Museveni had fought competitively with Dr. Kizza Besigye scoring 50% and 45% respectively. In 2011, Museveni carried the district with 53% against Besigye’s 37%.
With the red wave in 2021, Museveni settled for the crumbs as he couldn’t even get an NRM MP from the district while his party also lost many seats to NUP in the Buganda region which Masaka is at the heart of.
The stakes are even higher when it comes to the regional vote (the central region which comprises nearly two dozen districts). Bobi Wine got 64% almost doubling Museveni’s vote at 33% according to data by the Electoral Commission.
The trend shows that Museveni’s political fortunes have been on a downward spiral in the area. In effect, Museveni and the NRM face the worst possible outcome at the next turn which is why NUP should not take chances with the ongoing schisms, but the current exchanges between Mpuuga and Bobi Wine seem to turn things better for Museveni and NRM.
The latest rupture exploded after Bobi Wine, in a passionate media address, directly accused Mpuuga of being behind a string of state-orchestrated persecutions—including the arrests and prolonged detention of MPs Muhammad Ssegirinya and Allan Ssewanyana, and the alleged torture of his close aide Eddie Mutwe and other NUP supporters.
“It is not a secret anymore,” Bobi Wine said. “Hon. Mpuuga has been working with regime agents to betray our comrades. Ssegirinya, Ssewanyana, Eddie Mutwe—all are victims of his calculated betrayals.”
It was this extraordinary allegation—that Mpuuga was complicit in politically motivated arrests and even torture—that prompted the Nyendo–Mukungwe MP to call a hastily arranged press conference at Parliament, where he declared he would sue Kyagulanyi for defamation.
“We are fighting to end Museveni’s regime as a united opposition, and then comes a joker who stands before cameras and accuses me of being behind killings and arrests?” Mpuuga fumed.
“We shall meet in court. Let him name the people behind those killings if he knows them.”
The current squabble will automatically tear up Buganda, and this may make the ground so slippery for NUP to regain support which has of late been deteriorating. Museveni’s NRM will gain its support and this might see it secure better ranking in the region than it has always done.
The author is politician and media personality
